Guides / Backtesting

Drawdown Duration Analysis for Prediction Market Strategies

Max drawdown answers "how bad did it get"; drawdown duration answers "how long was I underwater" — and the second number matters just as much for a strategy you actually intend to run, since a shallow-but-long drawdown can be harder to sit through than a deep-but-brief one.

Where the data comes from

Computing either metric needs a full equity curve from a backtest run against real fills, which starts with ProbSights' orderbook and trade history across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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