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Fed Rate, Inflation & Recession Prediction Markets Explained

Kalshi lists yes/no markets tied to FOMC rate decisions ("will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting," and by how much), monthly CPI/inflation prints, and recession-probability questions. Each contract's share price is the market's live implied probability for that macro outcome, updating in real time as economic data and Fed commentary land.

What ProbSights covers today

ProbSights currently indexes Kalshi and Polymarket's BTC/ETH/SOL Up/Down interval markets — not Fed, CPI, or recession markets. For those contracts directly, see Kalshi. For normalized orderbook, trade, and resolution history on the crypto markets ProbSights does track, see what's live now.

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Data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Search live API docs Pricing