Guides / Platform
ProbSights whale tracking covers Kalshi on the same feed as Polymarket,
so outsized flow on both venues is visible in one place rather than in two dashboards. Each
record carries trade_size_usd, price, taker_side,
market_ticker, and event_title.
Kalshi contracts are binary and priced in cents, so a fill's price is directly
the implied probability the taker paid. taker_side tells you who was aggressive —
which is the part that carries information, since the resting side was already advertising that
price. A large fill on the Yes side at 30¢ is a different statement from a large fill on the No
side at 70¢, even though they are economically adjacent.
Kalshi settles off-exchange, so fills reconcile against a venue-issued trade_id
rather than an on-chain transaction_hash. Kalshi also runs a genuinely different
market mix — heavy in economics releases (CPI, FOMC, jobs) and weather, where flow clusters
sharply around scheduled release times. A whale threshold that works on a steady crypto series
will fire constantly on a CPI market ten minutes before the print, which is usually what you
want, but worth expecting.
Use each tracked event's own whale_threshold_usd, set from that market's
avg_trade_size over 24h or 7d. Kalshi's deep event
markets and thin daily contracts differ by orders of magnitude, so one global number cannot
serve both.
Kalshi market search and live prices are on every plan. Whale tracking with per-event thresholds and alerts is on the Builder plan. Add an event by ticker or by pasting its Kalshi URL.
Data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Search live API docs Pricing