Guides / Backtesting

Momentum Ranking Strategies in Prediction Markets

Where a mean-reversion strategy bets a recent move overextended, a momentum strategy bets it continues — ranking markets by recent price change and taking positions in the top (or bottom) of that ranking. Which one actually works on a given asset/interval combination is an empirical question, not a given.

Where the data comes from

Building either ranking needs the same input: ProbSights' historical price data for BTC/ETH/SOL Up/Down markets across Kalshi and Polymarket at 5m–24h resolution.

Related

• Mean reversion strategies in prediction markets
• Strategy evaluation metrics for prediction markets

Related guides

• BTC Backtesting Data — Historical Up/Down Markets from 5m to 24h
• Drawdown Duration Analysis for Prediction Market Strategies
• ETH Backtesting Data — Historical Up/Down Markets from 5m to 24h
• Flash Crash Analysis in Prediction Market Data

Data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Search live · API docs · Pricing